Here are four conceptual scenarios of US economy recovery:
1. No inflation and flat employment.
2. No inflation and increasing employment
3. Inflation and flat employment.
4. Inflation and increasing employment.
The price of consumer goods& services and employment present a sub-set of our consumption, labor, and capital model working on a desired loop in economic early expansion: the effective increase in consumer demand can only be derived from the increase in employment, which is based on the effective capital investment that can only be driven by the effective increase in consumer demand.
Since the increase in consumer demand is certain to cause price to rise in early expansion, we can merge the price into our macro model.
If it turns out that the demand from US consumers is not effective enough to stimulate domestic capital investment and thus employment or it is only effective to the EM, we will probably see scenario1.
However, unlike EU where the capital investment is inefficiently driven by low borrowing costs, US have younger consumers who may not only lift demand for EM goods& service but domestic, which will be effective and thus improve domestic employment.
We may see scenario 4 or 1 but not 3 and 2.